Pirates vs. Mets Prediction: Odds, Line & Insights for July 5 (2024)

Jul 5, 2024 6:10 PM

Coming off of a 1-2 series loss to the Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) are -140 favorites to pick up the win in Game 1 of a four-game series against the New York Mets (42-43). The series begins at PNC Park, starting on Friday at 6:40 PM ET on SNY. Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes gets the start, and he'll go against New York's Luis Severino.

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Pirates vs. Mets Predictions

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Moneyline Odds & Pick

Favorite: Pirates
Favorite Moneyline: -140
Underdog Moneyline: +120
Moneyline Pick: Pirates
Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Mets 4

Moneyline Insights

Pittsburgh is 15-20 in games it was listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 42.9% of those games).
This season, New York has won 19 out of the 38 games, or 50%, in which it has been the underdog.
The Pirates have a 7-7 record (winning 50% of their games) when they have played as moneyline favorites of -140 or shorter.
The Mets have a record of 5-5 in games where bookmakers have them as underogs of at least +120 on the moneyline.
Based on this contest's moneyline, Pittsburgh's implied win probability is 58.3%.

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Total Odds & Pick

Total: 7.5
Over Total Odds: -120
Under Total Odds: +100
Over/Under Pick: Over 7.5

Total Insights

So far this season, Pittsburgh and its opponents have hit the over in 39 of 86 games with a total.
New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 45 of its 85 opportunities.
The Pirates and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
When it comes to the total, the Mets and their foes are 7-2-1 in their last 10 contests.

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How to Watch Pirates vs. Mets

Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Time: 6:40 PM ET
TV: SNY
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Venue: PNC Park
Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo

Pirates vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers

Pirates: Paul Skenes

The Pirates will send Skenes (4-0) to the mound for his 10th start this season.
The 22-year-old has an ERA of 2.06, a 7.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.032 in nine games this season.
The Pirates have a 5-2 record in Skenes' seven starts this season when they were favored on the moneyline.
Skenes' team is 6-3 over his nine starts.
Skenes' starts went over the run total five times in nine games with a set total this season.

Mets: Luis Severino

The Mets will send Severino (5-2) to the mound for his 17th start this season.
The 30-year-old has pitched in 16 games this season with an ERA of 3.42, a 2.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.161.
His team has been defeated in each of the three games he's started as the moneyline underdog.
Severino's team has won eight of his 16 starts.
Out of Severino's 16 starts with a total this season, 10 have hit the over.

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Pirates vs. Mets Stats

Pirates		Mets
4.0	Runs Scored (PG)	4.9
23	MLB Rank (RPG)	6
4.4	Runs Allowed (PG)	4.7
17	MLB Rank (RAPG)	21
.228	Batting AVG	.247
25	MLB Rank (BA)	11
.247	Batting AVG Against	.236
23	MLB Rank (BAA)	11
82	Home Runs	109
24	MLB Rank (HR)	4
88	Home Runs Allowed	80
11	MLB Rank (HRA)	3